Cervical cancer cases worldwide will rise 20% by 2050 from 2024 levels and deaths will climb 39%, according to estimates a team led by the University of Washington and others published in the US medical journal Nature Medicine. Even as prevention drives incidence and mortality rates down, population growth is expected to expand the number of patients and deaths. The team also described wide regional gaps, with sub-Saharan Africa especially hard hit.
The team said spreading vaccination is the cornerstone of the response, and named vaccine hesitancy as a difficult barrier alongside the cost of measures. It cited Japan as an example, noting that public pressure led the government to withhold its active recommendation of the HPV vaccine from 2013 to 2022.
Under the estimates, new cases worldwide will reach 1.08 million a year by 2050. Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for 468,000 of them, an 89% increase from 2024. The global incidence rate falls 13%, which is still short of the World Health Organization's target level.
Deaths worldwide will reach 522,000 a year by 2050, with the mortality rate down 9% from 2024. The gap between sub-Saharan Africa and high-income countries will widen to nearly nine times.
The estimates were published ahead of Nov. 7.