A year after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's Diet answer on a Taiwan contingency drew China's anger, ties remain frozen, and a plan to expel a Chinese consul over a beheading post collapsed when Beijing threatened to retaliate in kind, Daily Shincho reported.
The dispute began with Takaichi's answer that a Chinese use of force against US forces could amount to a survival-threatening situation — a legal category that can justify Self-Defense Forces action. The government has since argued abroad that the answer matches Japan's long-standing position on Taiwan and was not wrong.
The Cabinet Secretariat and the Foreign Ministry believe that argument has won some understanding overseas. Relations with China itself stay ice-cold, and officials blame the remark for provoking President Xi Jinping, the outlet reported.
A consul's post and a doubled threat
The Chinese consul general in Osaka posted on social media that the only course was to cut off a dirty neck, according to an account in the Yomiuri Shimbun on the one-year mark. Takaichi instructed that the consul be declared persona non grata — a person unacceptable to the host state, a status in international law that lets a government expel a diplomat outright.
When a senior Foreign Ministry official relayed the notice, the Chinese side answered that expelling one would bring two in return. Fearing a deeper rupture, the prime minister sheathed the sword for the time being.
Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi later tried to stage a chance conversation with his Chinese counterpart and was ignored, the Yomiuri account said. Beijing has kept demanding that Takaichi retract the answer.
Daily Shincho quoted a source close to the matter calling the Yomiuri piece solid work built on detailed reporting. The source said the public warmed to Takaichi's firm stance and kept her cabinet's approval rating high, which encouraged her to take a hard line.
“Even setting aside whether the Diet answer was right or wrong, the beheading remark was out of the question, but mentioning persona non grata was a mistake.”a source close to the matter, told Daily Shincho
The same source said Xi has not budged an inch on the conciliatory gestures that followed, and has offered no point of compromise.
Support holds after election win
Cabinet support has stayed high since the ruling bloc's landslide in the February general election for the House of Representatives. More than a year after the cabinet took office, the source called that highly unusual, and said the government may be getting credit for not having kowtowed to China.
For a year the pattern has held: Japan seeks dialogue and a way back to normal relations, and China refuses.
Predictions after the answer ranged from a Chinese hard line lasting a decade to a warning that a threatening stance could not be sustained. The optimistic camp, and the view in the prime minister's office, centered on the APEC summit in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, on Nov. 18 and 19.
The reasoning was that China would behave with dignity on home soil as host, and would begin signaling a soft landing about a month before the meeting. That has missed badly, the source said, though Japan still hopes for some kind of thaw at APEC.
Some voices remain optimistic that relations this cold can only improve. Others warn that once the APEC festivities end, the intimidation and pressure on Japan will resume.