A compromise plan to cut 31 proportional representation seats in the Lower House, put forward by the Liberal Democratic Party, won support from Nippon Ishin no Kai and the Democratic Party for the People on October 28. The bill now looks likely to pass before the current Diet session ends on December 12.
Other opposition groups, including the Democratic Reform Association, oppose the compromise. With the three parties aligned, blocking the bill in the Upper House — where the LDP governs as a minority — is seen as difficult. If working-level talks among the three go smoothly, the bill could clear the Lower House in early November and pass the Upper House in early December.
Ishin weighed leaving the coalition
Ishin leader Hirofumi Yoshimura had pressed for the 10% seat cut he agreed with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi when the two parties formed their coalition last autumn, when she called it the "center pin" of reform. Many within Ishin saw that position as untenable, one party executive said: if passage this session proved impossible and the bill slipped to next year's ordinary session, the party would have to consider leaving the coalition.
LDP leaders, including Vice President Taro Aso and Secretary-General Shunichi Suzuki, saw the standoff as a chance to cut Ishin loose, a senior party executive said. Yoshimura, who gained cabinet posts for his party in the recent reshuffle, could not deny that the compromise was a lifeline, another Ishin executive said.
Many observers see a different motive behind DPP leader Yuichiro Tamaki's support. A political journalist said Tamaki aimed to drive a wedge into the LDP-Ishin coalition and open a path to joining it in the near future. He first proposed a 19-seat cut, then read Ishin's position and came on board with the compromise quickly.
A reprieve for Takaichi
People around the political world say the deal defused a time bomb, letting the Takaichi administration avoid an immediate crisis and helping it hold its high cabinet approval ratings, a former cabinet minister said.
The same figure said the three parties' political calculations were tangled together behind the agreement. If new difficulties arise over policy decisions or over how the parties approach next spring's unified local elections, the three-party arrangement could collapse quickly.