The Liberal Democratic Party reprimanded former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and three other members on Nov. 9 for leaving the chamber before a vote on the consumption tax cut bill, a penalty some in the party fear invites a repeat in the upper house.
The bill, which cuts the consumption tax rate on food from 8% to 1%, passed the lower house on Nov. 6 with the support of the ruling bloc. Before the vote, Ishiba, former economy, trade and industry minister Yuko Obuchi, former justice minister Yoshihisa Furukawa and former Economic Planning Agency chief Hajime Funada walked out. Their departure left senior LDP members abstaining in an unusual act of rebellion.
The four were given the second-lightest of the party's eight disciplinary grades. LDP Secretary-General Toshimune Suzuki had asked them for written explanations, which all four submitted by Nov. 9.
A challenge from the party's heaviest names
Ishiba told reporters he had written that the alternative source of funding for the cut had still not been made clear.
“I wrote that it still has not been established what the alternative source of funding specifically is.”Shigeru Ishiba, former prime minister
Punishing a former party president and prime minister, and Obuchi, whose name comes up as a candidate in next year's leadership race, left the leadership weighing how far to go. A heavier penalty risked damaging debate in the upper house, which begins Nov. 11. A lighter one makes rebellion there easier.
The numbers in the upper house
The LDP won more than two-thirds of lower house seats on its own in the February general election, so a few defections did not stop the bill. The upper house is a different calculation: the LDP and Nippon Ishin no Kai together are four seats short of a majority.
Even with the help of two independents — Yoshio Mochizuki, backed by lower house member Hiroshige Seko, whose readmission to the party is under review, and Sachiko Hirayama, close to disaster management minister Taro Hosono — the bloc remains two seats short. Party officials have been courting the opposition Komeito and the Democratic Party for the People.
A rebellion inside the LDP's own upper house caucus would make passage harder still. Attention has turned to Junichi Ishii, until shortly ago the party's upper house secretary-general, as a possible obstacle to the bill.
“There is no guarantee at all that it will pass the upper house. The prime minister has taken a big gamble.”a former LDP cabinet member, speaking to AERA DIGITAL on Nov. 6